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What will it take to break the fever?

Posted in Politics and Justice by EloiSVM42 on August 16, 2018

Forget about achieving bipartisanship. What will it take to end the febrile animosity between the parties enough to get something, anything, constructive, logical, and reasonably farsighted done?

I’m not even sure where all this began, but I have a theory. Some say it began with the Vietnam War; some say the murders of the Kennedy brothers and Martin Luther King, Jr.; and some point to Nixon and the Watergate scandal, all of which damaged our trust in our institutions, and they should have.

The Roe v Wade decision in 1973 certainly animated religious conservatives.

“Women’s lib” unsettled a lot of misogynistic, self-satisfied males. Then there’s income inequality, which began up-ticking circa 1980, when President Reagan told us greed is good, and many were stupid enough to believe him.

Some think it’s the dawning on us of the realities of (inevitable) globalization. President Clinton’s alpha male indiscretions off put many, even though he was a popular, successful president, and somehow this offense was transferred over to his wife, who has suffered for it.

And, of course, the flashpoint today is fear of the increase of Hispanics in the country and their influence on our culture.

But we’ve had all of these issues before – turmoil over wars, poor presidents, economic disruption and scandal (remember the Gilded Age?) and immigration fears – without such fever for so long.

The answer seems to me that these events were as kindling piled one piece on another over time, which were ignited by the election of Barak Obama. A black man in the white house was the last straw for some people.

The resulting revulsion put an egregiously unqualified man in the white house instead, one deplored by the majority but adored by a base of very angry people. A big chuck of this base, demographically, are white, uneducated males and their mates and, to put mildly and politely, religious conservatives (read wingnuts). In other words, the base got one of its own, or at least someone who talked and acted like one.

It is clear to me that I am a part of the problem. I do not respect these people. I don’t like ignorance, particularly determined ignorance; or bigotry, or misogyny, or xenophobia. I just don’t like people who think like that – in fact, I loathe and despise them – and I look down on them, which they obviously sense and resent from people like me.

That said, there is no doubt that both major political parties have failed these fellow citizens. But they have also failed themselves, particularly in regard to education.

Most civil wars – for that is what this vicious polarization has become – end from exhaustion. Both sides just wear themselves out fighting to the death over every little issue, however trivial, until things just melt down. (Frankly, I’m pretty sure that most people don’t really want this nonsense to continue any longer, already.)

Maybe that will happen here, but I’m skeptical it will happen soon. I anticipate a reaction to the antics of the current administration in November, but if that occurs, it won’t make Trump’s base any less angry. Channeling Punxsutawney Phil, it will just forecast six more years of contention.

But by then, I think something else will occur to alter our distasteful stalemate: the demographic shift that is already well underway, inexorable, and irreversible, will begin to swamp the current reactionary thrust. Politicians will recognize it and react to it or perish, just as they did when blacks became a dominant voting population in the south.

The Trump administration and its minions, especially Fox News, conflate immigration and “illegal” immigration to stoke xenophobic impulses. So called “illegal” immigrants can’t vote. They are no threat to politicians, only a convenient target. Immigrant citizens, on the other hand, are a growing, necessary fact, and I do not think they – legal, voting immigrants – will forget how they are being characterized by Republicans today, for a long time. (Likewise, I think Republican black voters will be counted on the fingers of one hand forever after Trump. Ditto, Asians.)

We need immigrants. We need skilled immigrants and unskilled one, and we sure as hell aren’t going to attract them from Norway. First, there aren’t enough Norwegian immigrants to meet our demand (though there were many in the 1800s). And second, who in his right mind would migrate here from Norway in this political environment? On the other hand, I would move there in a heartbeat myself if it weren’t so damn cold.

When we were in college together, a dear friend opined that he would be glad when we are all the same shade of brown. He has forgotten that observation, but I remember it vividly, and I understand and agree with his sentiment, which was to see an end to racial turmoil.  But I don’t want us all to be the same shade. It’s too monotonous, not to mention monotone. I welcome the diversity, now more than ever, and I think that, in the long term, it will ultimately break the fever.

What I’m Seeing in the Personal Economy

Posted in Uncategorized by EloiSVM42 on July 31, 2018

I wrote recently about the two economies: the macro economy, of interest only to students of economics, policy makers and fat cats; and the personal economy, of interest to people with daily lives. Several months ago, I began seeing something in town that I hadn’t seen in quite a while: Help Wanted signs in store windows. This was the first tangible evidence that the recovery from the Great Recession President Bush inflicted on us was finally being felt in the personal economy and not just the macro one.

Three byproducts associated with this increase in labor demand also became apparent.

First, sensing, I think, that the average consumer would see a little visible lift in his or her paycheck at the beginning of the year due to Trump’s tax cuts, many businesses took the opportunity to raise prices effective then. This happened with every one of my utility bills, for instance.

Second, wages began to rise, just perceptibly, not anything like what economists would predict at our current level of employment and this deep into a recovery.

This increase is due in part to some local and state government-mandated minimum wage increases. These increases to minimum wages are not very large, certainly not large enough to make a truly significant difference in people’s lives, but they were real and visible.

It’s understandable why wages haven’t risen as much as might be expected after this recovery. Most of the new jobs are low skilled ones, going to less educated workers. You can understand why employers would not want to pay such workers a lot for doing simple jobs.

This problem will remain intractable until we have more education and training of low skilled labor, and truly significant increases in minimum wages. Not the piss ant ones we have now, but something a person could actually live on.

I would like to see a graduated minimum wage, topping out to a family of four. Single people get one wage, married couples get more, a family with one child gets more still, and then minimum wage maxes out at two children. We don’t want to encourage too large families. (Maybe this will put pressure on the abortion debate.)

Third, the Fed, one of whose roles is to worry about inflation, has started raising interest rates. Trump doesn’t like this, and said so publicly, something a president  should never do, but he is wrong, if that’s not being redundant. (Trump speaks; he is wrong or he is lying.  Ergo, redundant.) Inflation steals buying power from paychecks. It should be controlled.

Another proven theft of buying power is tariffs. They are a tax on income in the form of higher prices, which hit hardest on the working classes. Trump is tossing tariffs around like Skittles at Angela Merkel.

It is just beginning to dawn on Midwestern farmers – particularly soybean growers and pork producers, but ultimately all of us – that Trump’s tariffs are threatening their livelihoods. And the idea of handing out (pitifully inadequate) welfare checks to compensate farmers for big losses they wouldn’t be experiencing if the tariffs hadn’t been imposed in the first place, is not only stupid, but can’t sit well with legislators who have to explain the logic of it to their constituents.

On the Macro Economy side, unemployment is low and GDP is growing. These are good things, but the distribution of benefits of them are inequitable, as Trump knew they would be. Despite his campaign promises, he deliberately gave all the money to his rich friends, who have tossed a little down to workers, as John D. Rockefeller tossed dimes to children in Detroit. A lot of people are looking at these numbers and thinking why are they not feeling any of this.

(One worrisome detail in the macro economy is that the vast majority of growth in stock market value is coming from fewer than 10 stocks, one of which – Facebook – is in investor doo doo. It’s a lot of eggs in very few baskets.)

The economy has been temporarily hyper-stimulated by Trump’s tax cuts, but even after benefits to the personal economy have run through the system, which economists say will occur sometime in late 2019, the overall economy should still be OK. However, Trump’s policies can undermine it some, and they sure as hell aren’t doing anything for the people he promised to help and who were dumb enough to believe him.

Thoughts on Events the Week of July 23

Posted in Uncategorized by EloiSVM42 on July 29, 2018

The Russians: Some Republicans think it might not look so good for their president to be kissing Putin’s ring in the U.S. Capitol so close to the mid-term elections. Duh. So, their leaders – McConnell (Senate) and Ryan (House) – persuaded Trump to postpone his invitation to Putin to visit until after the New Year (read elections). The argument McConnell may have used was, “Are you out of your goddamn mind!?” An obviously wise decision, but rare for Republicans to cross their godhead like that.

Meanwhile, the meeting between Russians and Trump campaign people, including Trump relatives, persists in the news, because it smells so much like, you know, collusion. Liberals are throwing around words such as criminal and impeachment, which is nonsense. Until Robert Mueller speaks, and depending on what he finds, this is irresponsible.

That said, it did feel like the flame under the pot of water in which the frog who is our president stews, got turned up just a bit this week.

The FBI arrested Maria Butina, a Russian agent and National Rifle Association groupie for being what she is. (Those Ruskies. They really knew where to look to find people dumb enough to buy into Trump.)

The Russians want Butina back, but not the NRA. They know big trouble when they see it, and they have been hiding silently under the refrigerator since she was tagged.

If Butina brings down the NRA, and it results in much better gun laws and many fewer guns, it all may have been worth it, by which I mean the Russian meddling. Nothing is worth having Trump as president. I don’t think the Russians won the election for Trump; Comey did. But the Russians can’t be allowed to do that anymore.

Tariffs: The inevitable pain induced by trade wars is starting to become apparent to Midwestern Trump voters, especially those who grow soybeans and raise pigs. Feeling the heat, the frog is promising a $12 Billion bailout to help alleviate the pain the farmers are experiencing, which pain Trump created in the first place. Not only is the bailout woefully inadequate, it wouldn’t have been necessary if Trump hadn’t started the tariff tit for tat, but welfare is, or was, anathema to the Republican Party. Are any Republicans starting to see the dawning light? Too soon?

In the realm of sane world trade, the EU and Japan moved on from Trump and made a pact between them, eliminating $1.2 Billion in tariffs on automobiles going either way, and leaving American auto workers to re-think their Trump votes.

Finally, Trump announced a deal with the EU to halt the tariff tiff between them at the status quo, and work to lower trade barriers even further, which will require longer term thinking, not Trump’s strong suit.

The irony in this Trump reversal is that this deal is precisely what President Obama was working on (pre Trump’s tariffs) with the EU, and until now Trump has rejected everything Obama ever did or said. Remember when Trump said trade wars are easy and he would win them all? No light yet?

Meanwhile, Trump still has the Chinese tariff tiger by the tail, and China isn’t purring. That tariff problem will hurt America a lot more than any of the other Trump tariff screw ups. It will hurt China, too, probably even more than us, but then China doesn’t have to hold elections.

Ineligible monsters: Experiencing a backlash even this administration could recognize as big trouble over its policy of separating children and parents crossing the border to seek asylum, the Trump administration seems to have worked hard to try to reunite the families before the court ordered deadline last Thursday. Some 1,440 children have been reunited with their parents, or about 56% of the acknowledged 2,500 separated. Good effort, but no cigar. That leaves about 1,100 children in the wind.

The government says 463 of the remaining children can’t be reunited because their parents were deported without them! Another 711, the government – using obviously scrambled numbers – says are “ineligible to be returned.” What the hell does that even mean? Just what is an ineligible child?

So, what should happen next? I have some thoughts:

First, the judge should tell Attorney General Sessions to get his bigoted butt down to Mexico, find those parents and bring them back to the U.S. to re-unite them with their children and re-adjudication of their cases, and stay there until his department finds them all.

Second, explain who, and exactly why each of the 711remaining children are “ineligible to be returned,” and the explanations better be damn good ones.

Third, put on hold all such deportations until further notice, hire a lot more judges to adjudicate refugee status claims timely instead of pissing away a bunch of money on temporary prisons, and give each refugee claimant adequate access to an ACLU or other attorney for counsel.

Finally, redefine “ineligible” to comprise the inconceivably barbaric, unfeeling, incompetent people responsible for this cock-up in the first place, to be “ineligible for public service.”

Football: I have long maintained that Jerry Jones is the best owner in the NFL, but this week, he did something incredibly stupid. He said any Cowboy who takes a knee during the national anthem will be cut. We know this is credibly stupid for two reasons. First, Trump praised Jones for it, and second, because Jones won’t do it. Sure, if some player far down the roster were to kneel, he might get cut, but if Ezekiel Elliot of Dak Prescott, for instance, did, they wouldn’t be, and then Jones would be in a pickle.

I actually sympathize with the owners just a little bit over this issue, because the players represent the team and the league on the field. You can understand why they would want to protect that investment, but they are going about it all wrong. NFL guys, do like colleges do: play the national anthem before the teams come onto the field.

Then, work with the players union to create and sponsor the NFL “Fund for Social Justice” to help poor minorities with discrimination legal cases. Problem solved. Jesus.

Hotel Trump: News that a federal judge is letting the emoluments suit against at least the Trump Hotel in D.C. go forward brought to mind that James Carville and I have the same prediction how Trump will most likely leave office: He’ll just quit.

Person of Interest: I’m going back to John Bolton, who broke the land speed record for doing a back flip through his own asshole, turning himself inside out on his position on Russia since joining the Trump administration. The life-long Russia hawk now says the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, which we, and he, know is a proven thing, is a “witch hunt.” What a suck up.

Status of the States: Alabama gets the cup this week, and maybe for a while until the immigration family debacle is resolved, because Sessions is from there.

Our Democracy under stress

Posted in Politics and Justice by EloiSVM42 on July 27, 2018

Many historians, politicians and pundits are saying that, on the whole, our institutions and our democracy are holding up against the onslaught of the Trump administration. Presidential historian Jon Meacham’s new book, and Meacham himself in interviews, says we have had better times than this certainly, but we have also had worse times than this and gotten through them.

I am skeptical of this opinion on both sides of it. I can’t think of a worse time, and I’m not confident we are going to get through this one undamaged.

Our system of government is structured with three branches designed to create checks and balances on each other, but it just isn’t happening, is it?

Our Legislative Branch hasn’t functioned credibly for about two decades. It is paralyzed by cowardice and partisanship. After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, it panicked and cowered and let President Bush lead us into a disastrous war and ruin the global economy without so much as a whimper of dissent or a modicum of rational discussion, let alone action.

When President Obama was elected and succeeded in enacting Obamacare, Republicans gained control of Congress and spent six years in complete opposition and obstruction to anything Obama proposed thereafter, regardless of merit, with the result that little got done, and what did get done was done by executive action, which filled the vacuum somewhat, but was not what the Constitution intended.

The low point of Legislative Branch malfeasance occurred when Senate Leader Mitch McConnell denied Obama the right to perform his duty to fill a Supreme Court vacancy, which not only abused the Constitution at the expense of the Senate’s integrity, but damaged the credibility of the Supreme Court as well.

This was a truly dastardly deed, and while popular with conservatives today, will be looked on historically as a monumental disgrace. I think McConnell will ultimately be placed in the sedimentary layer of Senatorial history along with Calhoun, Helms, Eastman and Thurmond, that level of ignoble quality.

Today’s Republican controlled legislature has done exactly four things since President Trump was elected: kiss Trump’s ring after each assault he has made on our institutions, fill the Supreme Court vacancy McConnell stole, name some post offices and pass a tax cut that gave all our money to the very richest of us, will send the national debt through the ceiling and our economy into a ditch deeper than even George Bush could manage, and leave us no money with to do anything else, however important.

The Judicial Branch no longer functions as a judiciary at all. Judges are appointed on the basis of political ideology rather than merit, like the patronage system of the 18th and early 19th centuries, and the Supreme Court since Antonin Scalia, is as completely committed to partisan politics as the Legislative Branch.

For their part, the Senate now tends to vote on nominees along party lines.

Dahlia Lithwick, who writes about the Court and whose work I enjoy reading on Slate.com, opines that Chief Justice John Roberts avoids though cases and prefers very narrow rulings to avoid the partisan heat of the times, but that in so doing is leaking the Court’s credibility with his caution. In my view, this is true, but it is also apparent that when it does rule on major issues, it rules radically and unfeelingly to the right at the expense of the will of the majority of average citizens and the Constitution.

Years ago, it occurred to me we shouldn’t depend on the courts so much, and focus on the legislative branch. Going to the Court was like going to mama to tattle. Things work out best when Congress, not the courts, make the call. When everyone feels they – at least through their representative – had a vote, decisions are more agreeably accepted.

I still believe that, but, sadly, about the time I reached this conclusion, Congress went into its current state of cowardly paralysis, too fearful take a vote on anything. The House, which has the sole authority to declare war, has  yet to vote on a war resolution  regarding Afghanistan, though President Bush began the war unilaterally 17 years ago in October, 2001, and President Obama specifically asked for that authority without response.

But, I still can’t see going back to this Court. I don’t trust it to do anything but swing more and more wildly to the right and decades farther back into the past.

Then, we come to the Executive Branch, which statistically is now the worst branch of them all. In the 21st Century, just 18 years in, we have elected, without a majority of the popular vote but via the Electoral College, perhaps the two worst presidents in our history. Bush is solidly the worst, but Trump may overtake him before he is finished.

To sum up, our government is failing Democracy 101, (despite heroic efforts by our Fourth Estate), and there are just two tests left for it to improve to a passing grade.

The first is the Mueller investigation – what, if anything, it finds, and how we as a country react to the findings. The second is the November mid-term elections. If ever a course correction were needed, this is the time. If none occurs, it is a short steep slope to the end.

I suppose some other event could blossom from a pop quiz into a full blown test, such as a Republican or two saying “Enough,” but I don’t expect it.

My  best hope, and frankly my expectation (keep in mind  that I expected Clinton to win the presidential election) is that the Democrats will win the House, subpoena Trump’s tax returns, which will show that not only has Trump been engaging in tax fraud for years, but has been laundering money for Russia. It’s the only way to explain Trumps’ behavior toward Russia. Putin has him by the legal scrotum.

 

Those were the Weeks that Were

Posted in Uncategorized by EloiSVM42 on July 26, 2018

It has been a genuinely awful couple of weeks for America, and still no inkling that any of Trump’s base is budging (though some may be slinking away silently, which doesn’t mean they won’t slip back and vote when the election comes).

This still confounds me. I had thought the base would hate Communism (read Russia) almost as much as they hate abortion, at least some of them. But it doesn’t seem to bother them that Trump is plainly in bed with Russia, which is our enemy, though it would not be a very significant one – more of an annoyance, really – except that Putin is pulling our president’s pants down in public, and Trump is letting him. Lett’s recap the last couple of weeks:

One the first Monday (poignantly coincidental in this instance) Trump announced his nominee to replace Kennedy on the Supreme Court – Brett Kavanaugh – about whom I have little to say except that he worked with Ken Starr, which is automatically disqualifying.

The most intriguing thing about this nomination is that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell fairly screamed to Trump that two of his four final candidates – Kavanaugh and the crazy church lady – would be more difficult to get confirmed than the other two.  So, of course Trump picked Kavanaugh.

Then Trump went to Brussels and smeared our NATO allies there. First, he slammed them for not meeting the defense spending goals in time, which they already agreed to try to do on a deadline that hasn’t even arrived yet, and then snarled that their target should be double what was agreed to. He was being a real dick.

But this quarrel misses the point completely. We, especially America, is already spending obscenely too much on defense. We should be cutting our defense spending and putting the money into much more positive pursuits.

(Suggestion for reducing expenses of the Veterans Administration: quit getting us into pointless, stupid, expensive wars. Fewer wars, fewer casualties.)

Then Trump went to Britain and pulled the rug from under Prime Minister May, who has her hands full dealing with her equivalent of the Trump base, who, in their ignorance, are screwing their country with their own xenophobia. He was an ugly American houseguest.

Trump opined he is very popular in Britain, though polls shows he has an 11% approval rating there. He is so unpopular, it was deemed unsafe to let him go into London. It wouldn’t have killed him, but his ego would have been mortally wounded to see the Baby Trump balloon and hear the boos. If you can’t stand the heat, you’re Trump.

Trump kept the Queen waiting and then walked in front of her, both of which are faux pas.  I don’t care about the monarchy, but I do care about sending a boor to do a president’s job.

Next to Russia, where we were treated to the breathtaking spectacle of seeing a United States president cowering before and mewing over Putin, taking the word of that lying president over the entire U.S. intelligence community.

The press asked Trump in advance of the trip if he would Putin about Russia’s interference in our 2016 election, and Trump said he would. Bullshit! Bullshit to the press for even asking such a lame question of Trump, and bullshit to Trump for saying he would ask. We don’t need to ask. We know. To ask is ludicrous. Putin clearly has Trump by the scrotum.

Everyone is ringing their hands over what Putin and Trump talked about for two hours alone, and worrying that we will never know, because Trump isn’t saying. But, we’ll know. We’ll know when we see what Trump actually does now, and/or when Putin tells us.

While all this was going on, a joint committee of the House Judiciary and Oversight Committees did a good impression of both a McCarthy hearing and a Dean Martin roast, of Peter Strzok, the FBI agent who foolishly emailed his distain of Donald Trump on a company email server.

There were no highlights to this hearing, only lowlights. The House Republican Mendacity triplets – Jim Johnson, Trey Gowdy and the idiot son Louis Gohmert, achieved personal records in hypocrisy, venom and abuse of authority.

Gowdy, for instance, insisted that the Special Prosecutor should hurry up and bring his investigation to a close. This from the man who strung seven investigations of Hillary Clinton and the Benghazi attacks together without learning a single new thing from one to the next.  Johnson took time away from his own scandal at Ohio State, from which I don’t expect him to recover – Hail, Columbus – to spew non-factual smears.

To my delight, and somewhat to my surprise, Strzok took no crap from these guys, and exposed them for what they were – McCarty wannabes, only with less charm.

The following Monday, Trump, reading from a prepared script (you always know Trump doesn’t mean what he says when he reads a script, because he didn’t write it), walked back his Putin pandering with a ludicrous explanation of a misspoken contraction, then, as predicted, walked back his walk back.

Meanwhile, on a serious side of the world, the EU and Japan, moving on from Trump and the U.S., announced a trade deal regarding automobiles, which means Trump has screwed both American automakers and American workers who build foreign automobile brands in the U.S.

Meanwhile, American soy bean and pork producing farmers woke up to the fact that Trump’s tariffs are screwing them like tied goats. Stay tuned to the reaction to that one.

The curtain of charity on this time period come down as Trump indicates he wants to invite Putin to yet another summit in Washington, and Republican lawmakers up for election this fall lost their lunch. Don’t worry. Putin won’t come. He already has everything he needs from Trump for now, and he doesn’t want to be in Washington when stuff starts hitting the fan.

To quote Cynthia, “I need a news fast.”

Thoughts on Events the Week of July 9

Posted in Uncategorized by EloiSVM42 on July 18, 2018

This has been the worst week in Trump’s presidency for America and for me, though for me, the worst has nothing to do with Trump. Cynthia died peacefully in her sleep Sunday night, and all else seems totally unimportant to me right now.

Some thoughts will form, eventually, about other events this week (actually two weeks), but for now, I’m just not ready, able or interested.

Baseball: is a very small ingredient in the thin sports gruel that sustains me between football seasons. I used to watch an occasional game involving the Texas Rangers, but they are apparently so bad this year that they don’t even rate television time this year.

The best thing I can say about baseball is that you can sit in a pleasant environment – green grass – with friends and a beer – and be confident that nothing is likely to happen on the field to interrupt your conversation.

To illustrate how out of touch I am with this sport, in the run-up to the All-Star game, the Sunday New York Times listed the 64 players – 32 for each league – elected or selected to the rosters this year and I had only even of three of them. Note: one of those three is a catcher named Molina, and I’m not even sure he is the same Molina I used to know who catches (caught?) for the Cardinals a while ago.

I probably won’t watch the All-Star game. I haven’t watched the last three, nor any game of the last two World Series, that I can remember. I always think I will, but then I don’t.

Person of Interest: Miles Mikolas, the most interesting side story of the All-Star game. The NYT points out that the 29 year old pitcher is aptly named, because he has traveled many miles in his baseball career, from team to team, from majors to minors, from country to country.

The St. Louis Cardinals saw something, brought him back from Japan and hit the jackpot. Miklos is having an All-star season with the Cardinals this year and is on the National League roster for All-Star game.

Nice story. I’m happy for Miles, but I still doubt I’ll watch the game.

https://www.google.com/search?q=miles+miklos&oq=miles+miklos&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.8659j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Update: I just read that Mikolas missed the game because he went home to be with his wife as she gave birth to twins. That’s still a happy ending, right?

Status of the States: I’m just not interested in what’s going on in any of them.

Re-thinking Roe v Wade

Posted in Politics and Justice by EloiSVM42 on July 11, 2018

Frankly, I’m sick to death of hearing about Roe v Wade. (Of course, I am only a man, and I don’t have a vagina at risk.) Abortion is the craziest, bloodiest most irrational battle in the culture wars, and has been raging ever more viciously since the Supreme Court handed down the decision in 1973. Skirmishes are unceasing, and every one incites more outrage on both sides.

For the record, I am a firm believer in abortions being available to those who choose to have them. More precisely, I believe people should have peace and privacy when making such a difficult decision.  Since Row was decided on privacy grounds, I think it was rightly decided, but the situation is complicated.

To me, this is a no brainer. I’m old enough to have seen what it was like before abortions became legally available nationally, and some of the results were tragic: unwanted children; forced marriages (which have doubtless contributed to a higher divorce rate); unaffordable children, which can throw people into poverty and bind them there; deformed and mentally deficient children, which are in the best of circumstances an enormous drain on social resources and capable of overwhelming families; and risky, dangerous, sometimes fatal illegal abortions in unsafe circumstances.

The counter arguments are based, in my view, on absolutist interpretations of an antiquated text, and a mean-spirited desire to punish those who commit the unpardonable sins of being pregnant, poor and colored. I would say to those holding such opinions, if you don’t want an abortion, don’t have one. Just don’t deny them to those who do.

Full disclosure: I’ve been the sperm contributor in a few abortions myself, though none of them illegal. Also, having lived in the 60s and early 70s in Oklahoma and Indiana – two determinedly hidebound states – while in college, and then living in New York, NY where abortions were legal before 1973, I hosted friends at my place during their trips there to have an abortion in a safe hospital.

The Supreme Court is, despite the myth, at heart political. To remain relevant, it must move with the times to accommodate changes in the public will, and deal with issues unimagined by the Constitution’s authors. Generally, though not always, the Court moves as there is enough public sentiment regarding its decisions to approve, or at least accept, with perhaps some grumbling, but no rebellion.

However, Roe seems to have been decided when public sentiment was still extremely split, and much of the country simply wasn’t willing to live with the Supremes’ decision. Maybe, just maybe, the issue should have been left to percolate a little longer, though to be fair to the Supremes, at the time, majority opinion already favored abortion being available.

So, what might happen if Roe were overturned? I assume the Supremes would return the abortion question to the individual states, and not outlaw them entirely. The reaction to a national ban would be untenable.

With abortion left to the states to deal with, at first at least, almost half – 22 of them – will outlaw abortions entirely, or put so many restraints on them to render them unobtainable. So, the number of states on either side of the issue will be split, but not popular opinion. A significant majority of voters will still prefer abortion to be legal, and I would expect this majority to increase in the face of this new reality.

In states where abortions are prohibited, the demand for abortions will not cease. There will be anguish and scrambling around to find alternative places or methods to have them. There will be illegal abortions and there will be predictably tragic events.

There will also be greatly increased voter activation and resentment within both sets of states. It’s been a long time since Rowe v Wade became law. Perhaps many women have become complacent about abortions being nationally available, despite the obvious chipping away at them from the right. This might galvanize more women them into more aggressive action against anti-abortion legislators.

Many politicians have been skating on abortion, saying they oppose them to appease their conservative voters, but knowing that they are safe behind the Court’s decision not to have to vote on the issue. Once the decision is overturned, they may find themselves facing serious new opposition.  

Medical technology has advanced since 1973. There is better contraception and abortion pills. Like everything else, so called day after pills could be available through Amazon, which offers free delivery within two days with a Prime membership. Then, there’s always Canada’s pharmaceutical houses. They’re cheaper anyway. In any case, I see the market, and the black market, for these products skyrocketing.

Outlawing abortions will take some pressure off of organizations like Planned Parenthood. Now they will be able to provide other medical services to women without being hounded by crazies.

I see abortion clinics being set up in states where they are allowed right on the borders with states where they are not, making it easier in many cases for people in non-abortion states to get them relatively conveniently. (Of course, this won’t work with non-abortion states all of whose borders abut other non-abortion states.)

I can also see crowd sourcing sites – something else new since 1973 – gathering funds to help women in non-abortion states with the expenses required to travel to pro-abortion states to have one.

But mostly, I can see a lot of highly pissed off and motivated women making a lot of legislators’ lives a misery until the issue is addressed through meaningful legislative action at the national level, overriding the Court, instead of the other way around.

One final comment re: Roe v. Wade. The Wade in this case was a truly despicable piece of filth named Henry Wade, who was at the time a District Attorney of Dallas County, TX.  Wade, a vile racist, which is redundant as I think about it, dragged innocent blacks off the streets, seemingly at random, and tried them before often equally racist juries, or at least juries indifferent to justice in the case of blacks, and get them convicted of crimes they didn’t commit,

At least 15 such Wade’s convictions have been overturned with the advent of DNA evidence, and it is certain that other innocents suffered their entire sentences in prison. Some who were innocent of their crime likely were executed. I’m not a fan of anything vaguely related to Henry Wade.

 

Thoughts on Events the Week of July 2

Posted in Uncategorized by EloiSVM42 on July 8, 2018

Melting ICE: The idea of abolishing the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency currently proposed by many knee jerk liberals is a poor idea and a shiny bobble exactly like the ones President Trump likes to throw out to distract voters from the truth, only this one is self-inflicted by Democrats themselves.

Abolishing ICE to improve immigration management is like firing the hangman to stop capital punishment. Let’s just say, to be polite to knee jerk liberals, it’s not a complete solution.

ICE is just a small part of the brain freeze of the Bush Administration, which scrambled and compressed and expanded and created new departments while running around in circles trying to act like it was doing something about terrorism in response to 9/11, while it was primarily just wetting itself. ICE does need reform, but so does the entire bloated Homeland Security debacle.

True, ICE does some things it has no business doing – separating immigrant parents and their children at the border, and menacing established, hard-working, peaceable illegal immigrants. But ICE also does some things that need to be done, like catch and deport illegals who are truly criminal.

ICE needs to be better directed to be sure, and made to stop in its tracks from hassling immigrant families, which many of its force seem to be doing too happily. This should be done sooner than immediately. But abolishment, if needed ultimately, can await the reform of the whole money pit that is Homeland Security.

July 4th: If I remember my history book correctly, we celebrate this day as the anniversary of when George Washington chopped down a cherry tree and threw it into the Potomac. It’s hard to keep historical and civics facts straight, because what’s written in the texts bears so little resemblance to what is happening in Washington today.

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, a woman whose salary we pay to lie to us for a living, and which she does so willingly, said that I need to decide if I love my country more than I hate this President. I’m thinking. I’m thinking.

If she is talking about Trump’s version of America, I hate that America more than I hate Trump, which is really saying something. If she if referring to the traditional version of America, I love it more than I hate Trump.

Ass Kissing Exercises: Though Trump suspended joint military exercises with South Korea, he sent a delegation of Republican Senators to Moscow on a practice ass kissing exercise with Yesterday’s Man, Vladimir Putin, prior to meeting him later this month.

Presumably, the Senators will provide intelligence to Trump, such as which of Putin’s cheeks is smoother, and  which knee, or both, Putin would like Trump to be kneeling upon when he kisses Putin’s ass, and whether or not Putin wants Trump’s hands on his hips or behind Trump’s back while doing his kissing.

The intelligence gained will be second hand, however, because the Senators, having traveled all the way to Moscow for the meeting, were told Putin was too busy to see them. How embarrassing was that?

I find this whole thing so odd. Republicans used to be seriously skeptical of Russia, but now they are puckering up like Trump, who Putin clearly has by the short and curlies, without a whimper. Seeing Republican Senator Richard Shelby there in Moscow, so obsequious with his comments, was just wrong on so many levels.

The NFL also gets on its knee for Trump: Speaking of being on your knees, NFL owners went down on their knees in front of Trump over the player protest issue, and now they have a real mess on their hands.

I sympathize, mildly, with owners for trying to protect their product and their investment, and for having to suffer Trump’s using them to stir his base, but there are ways out of their predicament better than what they are planning, which is only asking for more trouble and greater player, and some fan, resentment.

I was reminded – this is not my original thought – that at college football games, teams come onto the field AFTER the national anthem is played. Sounds like an easy fix for the NFL to adopt.

Another option would be to do away with the pre-game National Anthem altogether – it’s an unnecessary exercise in faux patriotism – but that would probably play into Trump’s hands, so that idea will have to wait for another, more enlightened time.

Justice, law of the jungle variety: Some rhino poachers were eaten by lions on a South African game reserve, and it couldn’t have happened to a nicer bunch of two or probably three guys. Their remains were discovered near the pride. When the suspects were questioned, the lions said, “Burp,” and lawyered up.

Person of Interest: John Bolton, Trump’s National Security Advisor, and a man who is truly barking mad. Bolton’s default position is regime change. He wants to nuke everybody. We haven’t had anyone this bellicose in a position of authority since Curtis Lemay (Google him). Bolton makes John McCain look like a pacifist.

Bolton must be conflicted right now. He was ecstatic when Trump pulled out of the nuclear deal with Iran. Bolton wanted to nuke Iran, but he had to settle with what he got.

However, Bolton also wants to nuke North Korea and Russia, and here he is, like everyone else who loses his soul working for Trump, smiling and supporting Trump’s giveaways and genuflections to Bolton’s other two primary nemeses. Plus, Bolton wants regime change in Syria, and Trump is making noises like he going to hand Syria to Russia. Choke on it, Bolton.

Note: as this went to press, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo limped back from North Korea trying lamely to perfume Trump’s pig of a deal with North Korea after it was exposed for what we all knew it was. Bolton must be chewing on his own liver. I’ll write this up on next Sunday’s blog.

Status of the States: EPA Director Scott Pruitt resigned this week, demonstrating that, contrary to all previous evidence, there is a level of corruption up with which the administration will not put…excluding by Trump himself, of course. Pruitt’s resignation lets Oklahoma off the hook as worst state.

The cup, therefore, goes to Alabama, based on Senator Shelby’s humiliating performance in Moscow. Can Alabamans really be as fond of Russia as their Senator?

Question: If you promise to drain a swamp, and then you actually add a whole lot of alligators to it, and then remove one really ugly, smarmy gator, can you claim credibly that you are draining the swamp?

Diary Entry: The average date of the first rainfall to occur in the Monsoon season in this region of Arizona is July 6. Sure enough, on Friday, our first shower came, right on schedule. It was a light one, but it was enough to give hope and relief to the flora and fauna that have been waiting through a particularly dry winter, spring and early summer.

Trump’s Second Supreme Court Nominee

Posted in Politics and Justice by EloiSVM42 on July 7, 2018

President Trump has said he will announce his candidate to fill the Kennedy vacancy on the Supreme Court on Monday night, during a prime time TV spectacular. Given Trump’s shameless promotion proclivities and Miss America association, one might wonder if we’ll see a swimsuit competition among the candidates.

This blog is to put down thoughts about the process before the candidate is announced. These thoughts are informed by:

1.     My understanding of, and respect for the Constitution

2.     My recent realization that the Founding Fathers framed the Constitution assuming everyone would do his or her job, about which they are being proven wrong in the present day.

3.     History and experience.

I’m old enough to remember when Supreme Court Justices were selected based on particularly outstanding merit rather than ideology. Typically, the quality and character of the nominees was so great and so apparent, that the candidates were generally consented to by high percentages of the advising Senators, often unanimously.

Today, ideology, partisanship and “litmus tests” are the primary criteria for a nomination, and even qualified candidates, and the occasional one clearly not, get on the Court by small majority votes. Clarence Thomas is a smear on the history and standards of the Court. Samuel Alito. Are you kidding me?

There are differing opinions on where this shift began. Many presidents have nominated a clunker or two: Johnson (Abe Fortas); Nixon (Haynsworth and Carswell); Reagan (Bork and Ginsburg).

Presidents George H.W. Bush (Souter and Thomas), Clinton (Ginsburg and Breyer) and Barak Obama (Sotomayor and Kagan) had no Supreme Court nominee rejections, though Bush should never has nominated the truly mediocre Thomas in the first place.

The process descended into farce when George W. Bush nominated Harriet Meyers. But this downward spiral hit a nadir when Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused even to hold hearings on President Obama’s third Supreme Court nominee – Merrick Garland – thus stealing an appointment from Obama and severely damaging the integrity of both the Senate and the Court in the process. I will never feel the same about either again. McConnell’s act was a doubly dastardly dirty deal, and that’s how history will record it.

Trump is certain to select a conservative nominee, one expected to be favorable to his initiatives, including even overturning Roe v Wade, which decision the Court handed down in 1973, and about which I will write more next week.

My only comment on Trump’s announced contestants on his game show, is that there is a dull, ordinary sameness to them, cookie cutter credentials, and no exceptionalism.

This nomination is happening while Democrats are still seething over the McConnell betrayal, and many Democrats want to do a tit for tat if they can, which is doubtful anyway. But this is the classic example of two wrongs only making a greater wrong, which is no way to treat the Constitution, just because some particularly smarmy pig part did.

Democrats must be better than that. Place the nominee or nominees, depending on how the process goes, under serious scrutiny. Some may crack. Some may surprise pleasantly. If they don’t display exceptionalism, vote against them. If they do, vote for them. Don’t vote either way for political convenience.

Live with the final decision – under the Constitution it is Trump’s to make – and take what comfort we can in these truths: 1) Trump, and his party, will be held to political account for his decision, which is likely to tickle his base but disturb and activate the majority of Americans, and 2) Ultimately, the Court does not decide. The people decide. Unpopular decisions change the Court, through popular consensus and political change. In the meantime, the Constitution is faithfully served by at least one political party.

Thoughts on Events the Week of June 25

Posted in Uncategorized by EloiSVM42 on July 1, 2018

Due Process: President Trump suggested we should deny due process to those wanting to cross our border from the South. This one really pisses me off.

I like my right to due process. Due process is among the most important pillars of our Constitution.  It’s so important, it is expressed in not one but two of our Amendments – the fifth and 14th. Remember this about due process: if it can be denied to one, it can be denied to anyone.

I think it was Thomas Moore who said something to the effect that if you brush aside all the laws to get at the devil and then the devil turns on you, behind what will you hide? The short answer is due process.

Our prick of a president will be glad to have due process one day soon, I suspect, and he, in my view among the most undeserving, must have it, because if he can’t have it then none of us can.

Justice Kennedy resigned from the Court: I’ve never thought much of Kennedy on the bench. He had no grounded legal philosophy. He was a gadfly.

As the proverbial “swing vote,” which he enjoyed too much, he paled ghostly in comparison to his predecessor in that role – Justice Sandra Day O’Connor.

In retrospect, one of the mistakes our Founding Fathers made in writing the Constitution was to appoint Supreme Court Justices for life. It was done to protect them from political pressure, which is a good idea, but “for life” is too imprecise a term. In 1789, life expectancy was a mere 36 years! The FFs couldn’t foresee a Court filled septuagenarians, octogenarians and even – like the Notorious RBG – a nonagenarian.

A Supreme Court term should be set for a finite period of time, say 10 years, the length of two presidential terms, plus two, which assures some overlap.

Keep in mind that the Supremes are somewhat isolated from the general public, and we generally become more conservative as we age (though I haven’t). Kennedy was an extremely hidebound man in his last year or two on the Court. He voted with the conservative majority in every 5-4 decision in the Court’s last term, which ended Friday. He is clearly out of touch with the times, with the notable exception, it must be admitted to individual rights.  In most other regards, he lagged a century, even two, behind.

I, like everyone else paying attention, have some thoughts on the political as well as judicial implications of Kennedy’s retiring. I’ll write them down in the next week or two.

Harley Davidson moves on: The iconic motor cycle company is moving some of its operations out of the U.S. to avoid the retaliatory tariffs the EU has placed on it in response to Trump’s impulsive, ill-advised tariff initiation. It is really pissing Trump off, which is fun, but the only good thing about it. It is, in fact, a cautionary event, and perhaps a harbinger of the kind of thing that can happen when trade wars erupt, which easily get out of hand.

I doubt this move was made solely for the reason Harley stated. The U. S. is a mature market for Harley. Every redneck has one. Its growth potential is abroad, and it has competitors. It made a practical business decision that may well have occurred with or without the tariffs. Harley certainly wasn’t going to let Trump screw things up for it by adding a couple thousand dollars to the price of a Harley in foreign markets, Trump and his base be damned.

Person of Interest: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who ousted Democratic incumbent Congressman Joe Crowley in New York’s 14th District in the state’s recent primary elections. Crowley is an out of date fossil, but still it took a perfect storm of circumstances for Ocasio-Cortez to win. She is a relative unknown, and making her first bid for elective office. This was an improbable upset.

But, I have listened to her speak several times, and she is obviously extremely intelligent, eloquent and a very mature thinker for a 28 year old. She is a social democrat, a political philosophy close to my own. I hope the best for her. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandria_Ocasio-Cortez

Status of the States: Oklahoma keeps the worst state cup until EPA Director Scott Pruitt is gone.